Trying to predict the weather is hard........
I’m in the middle of locking down my 2011 Forecast – forecasting how many bottle I expect to make, when to make them, how many raw materials I need to buy in, how much sales will be, cash flow, etc etc………all the usual!
All of the businesses I have worked in have had a seasonal flow to them…chocolate, socks [yes really], cooking sauces – the only exception was Petfood, which was pretty uniform and the peaks were more geographical then seasonal. Soft drinks are perhaps more seasonal than most products…….peaking between Easter and September. There is a magical sweetspot of about 18 degrees, when it warms up enough for people to want to swap tea/coffee for something more thirst quenching. The hotter it gets, the more hydration people are looking for……..so what the weather will be like becomes pretty key to an accurate forecast in a business like mine!
So what will Summer 2011 be like? That’s the hot question in the Breckland Orchard HQ. Summer 2009 was a bit hit and miss, summer 2010 was pretty awful. Winter 2010/11 is turning out to be one of the harshest in years, so does that mean that we will be in for a scorcher?
For the time being I am doing a central forecast, but will be keeping a beady eye out for the long term forecasts. The BBC weather guys sum it up beautifully ‘The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster’. So I shan’t be too hard on myself for thinking that it more than stretches the small entrepeneur